‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of cooking gas are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are adopting traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say cylinders are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been caused by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.